The Nagorno-Karabakh problem is a problem that concerns not only the sister country Azerbaijan, but also Turkey.
First of all, I would like to draw attention to the Azerbaijan – Armenia border in order to explain the issue clearly. When Karabakh passes into Azerbaijan, it is separated from Nakhchivan and Azerbaijan by a notch.
NAGORNO-KARABAKH CONFLICT AS THE MAIN SECURITY ISSUE OF THE SOUTH CAUCASUS INTERNATIONAL, REGIONAL, LOCAL INTERESTS AND TERRITORIAL INTEGRITY OF AZERBAIJAN
Within a distance of about 32 kilometers, it is not a place where Armenia can put more than its natural parks, large and small settlements. But when Azerbaijan is removed from Nakhchivan, does the problem end there? No.
Nahcivan is a country with a border crossing with Turkey. The connection of this country to Azerbaijan is a sign that we, in other words, Turkey, will be the border to deazerbaycan. This means getting closer to the Turkish geography and traditional allies like Pakistan through the Caspian Sea and finding them with us.
They tell us about our country, which is surrounded by sea on 3 sides, but no one tells us where this country would come out if it had an exit situation. A closed Iran surrounded by mountains, with historical problems, Greece suppressed the Aegean, and a Bulgaria with troubled relations with Turkey. The Black Sea is already closed, there is no exit. They are trying to stop Turkey by cutting off Turkey from the Arab world and using the PKK as a support, with the PKK engulfing Syria and Iraq. Although Turkey tries to stop this situation in its operations in Syria, the US and Russia will continue to try in that region.
Let’s come back to this Karabakh problem… Where does the value of the region, which Armenia is defending at the expense of weakening, even though there are no settlements, mines or valuable finds in the region come from? Armenia, which has shrunk only because of this Karabakh embargo, became a problematic structure in the so-called events of 1915, including its own lobbies. Isolated from the world, Armenia is a satellite of Russia as a state. Russia’s two military bases are within the territory of Armenia.
The Nagorno-Karabakh issue is in fact being held as a supporter by the opposing party. Because this area will be given back by sacrifice to something. That meaningless Land extension will also remain in Armenia. So Nakhchivan will remain isolated. Azerbaijan and Turkey will not be reunited. Because even though Turkey is going through difficulties, it is the patron of the Turkish geography. The powers that wish not to unite with the political borders are seeking to intimidate both Azerbaijan and Turkey with the Karabakh issue.
Those who want to tie Turkey’s hand and neighbor it to separatist terrorists do not want Turkey to open up to the world from anywhere else. I think that is why there is a serious pressure on Cyprus. In particular, the fact that the Cyprus issue and the Armenian issue are not connected, but they are brought forward from time to time, shows that there is an organic connection in the background.
If we come to the present day, there is a backward Armenia and a rising Azerbaijan. Turkey, on the other hand, has made a contribution to the opening of Azerbaijan to the world through its commercial alliances with Azerbaijan through Georgia and has managed to gather its energy lines on its own.
In particular, Georgia, which is unfamiliar with these issues, must be included in the alliance and positioned even more hawkish. Because the independence processes of South Ossetia and Abkhazia also show a fraying Georgia. I think it is obvious how seriously the country that changes its flag will be taken.
I think this region, which is a hotbed of gambling and the mafia, needs to be designed by Turkey.
If we can turn the Russian-American tension into a card with a front through Georgia, we will have toppled the first domino that set up the game. That way, we get the first air shot like a basketball game. My wish is that the Karabakh conflict should explode in the hands of Armenia as a bomb. It is essential to apply to Armenia the fate of our country, which has received criticism even in the case we have been right about Cyprus for years, and to put an end to this situation with a military intervention if necessary.
Turkey will either disappear in the Middle East swamp, or it will strengthen its dominance in Central Asia and the Caucasus. The way to do this is to eliminate the old Armenia. It is to patronize the Georgians. I’m not suggesting that this would be military, like a sledgehammer. However, in legal terms, the Khojaly Massacre and the Armenian atrocities must be accepted by the world legal authorities.
The biggest challenge that Azerbaijan has encountered in the independence years is the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. In the international arena, restoration of territorial integrity is our primary objective. It is no secret that for over 20 years Azerbaijan’s historical part- Nagorno-Karabakh and its seven adjacent provinces- have remained under occupation by Armenia. As a result of that military aggression and the policy of ethnic cleansing, 20% of our territory has been occupied and over one million people have become refugees and internally displaced persons. (Arastu HABİBBEYLİ , Reconsidering Azerbaijan’s Foreign Policy on the 25th Anniversary of Restored Independence, page 42)
Azerbaijan has been a center of attraction in all periods of history due to its geographical location. For this reason, it was constantly under occupation by foreign powers, and although it gained independence for short periods, it was not able to maintain it. However, 20. at the end of the century, independence was achieved and the Democratic Republic of Azerbaijan was established. When we look at the history of Azerbaijan, Karabakh has contributed greatly to Azerbaijan both culturally and politically. Karabakh is the name given to the mountainous region between the Kür and Aras rivers in Azerbaijan and Lake Göyçe, which is now within the borders of Armenia, and the plains that are connected to this region. Due to its geographical location, it has the possibility to control Armenia and Iran. (Aslanlı; 2001, 393.) (1 Ünal, Ömer Faruk (2001), “Azerbaycan 1988-1995:Sancı, Kargaşa ve İktidar,” Journal of Qafqaz Unıversity, 8 Fall.)
Azerbaijan experienced great political difficulties in the post-independence period. The country is on the verge of disintegration due to the circumstances of the period. However, with the “balance politics” implemented with Heydar Aliyev, first internal stability was achieved, then the Karabakh War was stopped and the existence of the country as an actor known and important to the international public was accepted. This politics is continued in the period of lham Aliyev. In this context, a political and economic balance is sought between Western countries and Russia.
However, some countries have a special place in Azerbaijan’s foreign policy. It is located within a close friendship and Historical Dialogue in Turkey, where Azerbaijanis in the country and an important lobby featuring the work of two million, Russia is a guarantor for the transportation of natural resources to world markets the US, which plays a key role in the country’s foreign policy. There is also an Iranian influence in the country’s foreign policy that cannot be underestimated by religious factors.
In addition, the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict emerged as a result of Armenia’s claim over the territory of Azerbaijan during the break-up of the USSR and the independence of the Post-Soviet countries, and by the influence and assistance of some foreign geopolitical actors, it turned into one of the regional conflicts affecting not only the South Caucasus but Eurasia, Europe and even the whole world. In time, fails to prevent, and some local, regional and international efforts to be used by powers in their own interests as a result of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and the inhumane actions of similar massacres happen in the later years of the great emergence has given rise to regional conflicts in many parts of the world.
When we examine the historical roots of Armenia’s attack on Azerbaijan and the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, we can see that the Armenians ‘ territorial claims and ethnic aggression against Azerbaijan prove that they had the intention to establish their own state in the territory of Azerbaijan, then expand that state and realize a utopia called Greater Armenia.
The migration of the Armenian population to the strategically important Karabakh region of Azerbaijan occurred in the early 19th century, especially after the 1828 Turkmenchay Treaty shared the territory of Azerbaijan between Russia and Iran.
Azerbaijan became independent after the collapse of the Soviets and, as in history, was subjected to the direct influence of Russia, Iran and Turkey. This influence has also manifested itself in Azerbaijani foreign policy. I can group the other factors affecting the formation of Azerbaijan foreign policy in the post-independence period as follows:
Armenian occupation of Azerbaijani territory;
global processes; geostrategic position;
delivery of natural resources to world markets;
global and regional security threats;
the obligation to approach regional and international problems responsibly and to cooperate.
Of course, it would be wrong to consider the Karabakh issue based only on Azerbaijan and Armenia. For the regional powers that will benefit from the struggle between the two countries, the Karabakh issue is often perceived as an instrument of repression. Russia, for example, continues to support Armenia in military terms as well as in economic aid. Russia’s signing of the S-300 missile agreement with the Yerevan government in order to protect Armenia’s National Security clearly demonstrates where Moscow has put itself in this equation.
Let’s look at the effects of regional and global developments on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.
The Caucasus region’s geopolitical, geostrategic and religious property due to, especially on the South Stream project, Nabucco, Nord Stream project, the Shah Deniz project Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline, Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum natural gas pipeline, the Blue Stream project, the current Turkish Project TANAP etc. it is vital for the implementation of many projects. For this reason, especially Russia and the United States, China, the European Union, Iran and Turkey in the region Energy, oil and natural gas, etc. it is possible to say that there is serious competition to exploit resources.
From this point of view, it is possible to say that Azerbaijan and other countries in the region, especially in the Caspian Basin, have a close relationship with the global powers. At this point, Turkey’s geopolitical and geostrategic importance comes to the fore by itself. In particular, the determination of the ways in which the energy produced in the Caucasus and Central Asia will be transferred to the world is largely carried out simultaneously with the policies of global and regional powers. In this case, it is not wrong to say that it increases the likelihood that the problems in the region will be brought up consciously from time to time by global and regional powers.
Since energy projects related to the region and the South Caucasus region are the focus of global powers ‘interest, it can be said that the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is the focus of regional and global powers’ interest, as are many problems in the Caucasus, especially in the South Caucasus region. Therefore, I can say that the strategic importance of the region brings along the dynamism and continuity of the regional problems.
The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict has not been resolved in accordance with international law until today. Because a superior authority capable of restoring the broken peace has not yet been established in the region. In addition, power conflicts between international actors such as Russia, the United States, France, Turkey and Iran have an important role to play in filling the power vacuum in the region. Another obstacle to the peaceful solution of the problem is that mediation activities remain weak.
Let us briefly consider the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan within the scope of the Caspian Sea.
One of the criteria for success in the power struggle of developed and developing industrial states is the provision of energy from secure sources. This factor increases the geopolitical importance of the regions where oil and natural gas are available as energy sources. The Caspian region has the richest oil and gas reserves in the world. This is mainly due to the role of the energy factor in the emergence of problems related to the region and solving the existing problems. It is conceivable that the energy factor that has become an important geopolitical value in our time can also be effective in solving the problems faced by Azerbaijan, which has rich oil and natural gas resources. For this purpose, the interests of the states that are influential in the region should be analyzed first, conflicting issues should be identified and the possibility of problems arising and being resolved in these conditions should be evaluated.
The continuity of systemic hegemony at the point of their own, including Russia and China, very pro-global actors, we can say that polarity is fatal in a fight with the Euro-Atlantic world, particularly in Eurasia competition are meant to be party based. Large-scale power vacuum Judge, Rich Energy Resources have a huge advantage in terms of the Caspian basin where Russia and China geographically, systemic breaking point where we can say that the struggle of global and regional powers as an important component of the Eurasian continent is witnessing. The conflict in the context of the Caspian Sea, known as a very important energy base that connects Central Asia to the Caucasus, and the ongoing conflict behind the scenes at the point of control of this sea, has recently re-emerged. ( Dr. Göktürk Tüysüzoğlu, Hazar’da Rekabet Kızışıyor, 04 Ağustos 2013)
In determining the legal status of the Caspian Sea, the obstinacy of the watershed countries ‘ problems to Azerbaijan is hidden in the official Baku’s noble stance on this issue. That is, acting in accordance with the wishes of Russia and Iran is not a threat to Azerbaijan’s national and international security principles but a matter of principle. In more detail, the security of Azerbaijan’s regional and international interests regarding its geopolitical status in the Caspian Basin and in the South Caucasus region is at stake. It is noteworthy that Brzezinski made a good assessment of the geopolitical importance of Azerbaijan in the Caspian Basin and agreed that the independence of the Central Asian states would also be meaningless if this country were to fall under Moscow’s rule. According to the former National Security Advisor of the United States, Azerbaijan is the main road between Central Asia and Europe, so if its independence is invalidated, it is certain that the rich energy resources of the region will be controlled by Russia.
In contrast to what Brzezinski said, I can say for Azerbaijan: with the signing of the “Treaty of the century” in 1994, the strategic vision of the region has changed completely. In the wake of this oil and gas deal, Russia began to see joint cooperation for Energy, seen as a geopolitical extension of the West, on the shores of the Caspian Sea. As a continuation of this, Kazakhstan, Russia and Azerbaijan met in Astana on 14 May 2003 and reached partial agreement on their common energy policies. The Moscow administration’s approval of the agreement on the “ division of the Caspian bottom into national sectors on the basis of the middle line and the common use of the water surface” proposed by Azerbaijan in reaching a final conclusion of the legal status of the Caspian depends on objective reasons. In fact, the Moscow government, which does not accept the Treaty of the century, after many years of understanding and coming to the official Baku, now understands that any kind of siege of the West is inevitable and the worry of losing the former Soviet republics again depends on.
After the collapse of the USSR, Azerbaijan started to pursue independent domestic and foreign policies in line with its political and social values. The circumstances of the new era disturbed Armenians and some other minority groups due to the identity conflict.
The new landscape, which has turned into tissue discord in social and political terms, has caused conflicts from time to time. Various internal and external planters played a role in the flare-up of the conflict. One of the factors that stands out is that the consciousness of belonging to the same society is not sufficiently formed. During the Soviet period, Armenians, like other ethnic minorities, felt more as part of the Soviet Union Community than as a minority in Azerbaijan. At the time of the Soviet Union, the ideology of socialism did not accept national values as the main material for maintaining social integrity and found them dangerous.
National and religious ceremonies and feasts are forbidden because they are against socialism. The main languages of the member states of the Union were secondary and Russian was accepted as the official language. Under these circumstances, the minority groups in the member states did not feel the dominance of the sovereign peoples and considered themselves part of the Soviet society. This assumption had an important role in the spread of the various ethnic conflicts that arose after the dissolution of the USSR. This also prevented Armenians from seeing themselves as part of Azerbaijani society after independence and from intimidating that they had minority status. This factor played an important role in the Karabakh conflict in favour of discrimination instead of the demands of the Native Armenians to protect their rights and improve their situation.
Another reason for the growth of conflicts is that universal values are not sufficiently accepted in both societies and are not in harmony with social values. With universal values, intellectual, moral and social value judgments aimed at guaranteeing people’s natural rights and freedoms and living according to certain criteria are understood. The system of social values sought to be created in the USSR period did not allow enough for the establishment of universal values since it was founded on ideological foundations. Thus, the consciousness of tolerance, which makes diversity possible, is not sufficiently established as a social value. As a result, although the Karabakh conflict was initially established on the territorial demand, the conflicts soon gained the dimension of ethnic animosity and the parties were forced to migrate from their respective places.
The fact that Russia has Rich Energy Resources has eliminated its dependence on foreign countries in this respect. Russia uses its oil and gas reserves as a means of geopolitical superiority in foreign policy. For this purpose, it tries to use not only its energy reserves but also its transit facilities based on its geographical location in line with its goals. Using its weight on the regional states, it has a monopoly role in marketing the natural gas and oil of neighboring countries to Europe. In the face of Russia’s hegemony, it can be observed that Azerbaijan pursued a more independent energy policy. Although this situation has given Azerbaijan geopolitical superiority in many ways, it has reduced the influence of the energy factor, which is thought to have enabled Azerbaijan to resolve the Karabakh conflict, on Russia.
Conclusion
Today, the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict stands as a dispute between Azerbaijan and Armenia with high potential to escalate into hot conflict at any time. Although high-level talks are ongoing between the two countries, it is not possible to say that peace will be achieved in the foreseeable future, as the demands of the parties are in principle contradictory to each other.
On the other hand, the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict has an international dimension. The first state that comes to mind in this context is Russia, which is an ally of Armenia. However, as long as the security problems between Armenia and Azerbaijan continue, Russia, which makes money by selling arms and military supplies to both sides, does not want to change the balance in the region.
Moreover, as long as there are disputes between Armenia and Turkey, Russia’s military presence in the South Caucasus will continue. So Russia is the party that is happy with the current order in the region.
On the other hand, the West, especially the US and France, who are co-chairmen of the OSCE Minsk Group, have been very unconcerned about the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict in recent years. This is further distancing Armenia, which already has good relations with Russia, from the West. In summary, as long as this strategy of the West or its incompetence continues, Armenia should not be expected to back down on its demands for a solution to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.
When Azerbaijan restored its independence from a collapsing Soviet Union in 1991, the country faced enormous challenges as the old system crumbled and the new one was yet to be established. At the same time, neighbouring Armenia was waging an all-out warfare against Azerbaijan, and trying to occupy Azerbaijan’s Nagorno-Karabakh region. In 2016, Azerbaijan’s independence and independent foreign policy marked its 25th year. A retrospective analysis of this quartercentury-long policy reveals that, despite early challenges, Azerbaijan has successfuly managed to not only strengthen its fragile statehood and enter into a path of sustainable development, but also pursue a very skillfully crafted foreign policy that has made the country a regional leader and globally respected actor. (Arastu HABİBBEYLİ , Reconsidering Azerbaijan’s Foreign Policy on the 25th Anniversary of Restored Independence, page 45)
In light of the developments, it can be said that Russia will continue to maintain its status quo in the Caucasus and especially in the South Caucasus in the long term. From this point of view, a solution to ethnic and other problems in the region that would harm Russia’s interests or disable Russia would hardly be possible. Therefore, we can say that the solution of the Nagorno-Karabakh problem has a regional impact in the first place and then a global one. As a matter of fact, the solution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict has a global impact since it affects Armenia-Azerbaijan relations as well as Turkey-Armenia and Turkey-Azerbaijan relations.
Although Russia’s strengthening of its military bases in Armenia has been more frequent in the wake of the aircraft crisis between Turkey and RF, it is also useful to draw attention to the regional dimension of the problem. Especially with the strengthening of these bases, it is possible to say that Russia is engaged in activities that will facilitate its hand not only in Turkey but also in the face of a possible development in the Caucasus region, which it describes as its backyard. In this respect, it is useful to say that global and regional problems, as mentioned earlier, now have much different dimensions and effects. When regional and global developments are looked at in this way, it is seen that the region is used as a tool for ethnic or other problems in the Caucasus in general and in the South Caucasus in particular, both in the struggle for influence in the region and in the face of a possible problem.
As a result, I can say that the Nagorno-Karabakh region connects Europe with the Caucasus and that is why it is very important. I’d like to finish by talking about the Heartland Theory of the English geographer Halford Mackinder. ‘Whoever gets the Heartland rules the world,’ Mackinder said. It may be a big claim, but it may also dominate the region that takes Nagorno-Karabakh.
Ömer Faruk COŞKUN